Changes in the triglyceride glucose-body mass index estimate the risk of stroke in middle-aged and older Chinese adults: a nationwide prospective cohort study

Abstract

Background: Stroke was reported to be highly correlated with the triglyceride glucose-body mass index (TyG-BMI). Nevertheless, literature exploring the association between changes in the TyG-BMI and stroke incidence is scant, with most studies focusing on individual values of the TyG-BMI. We aimed to investigate whether changes in the TyG-BMI were associated with stroke incidence.

Methods: Data were obtained from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), which is an ongoing nationally representative prospective cohort study. The exposures were changes in the TyG-BMI and cumulative TyG-BMI from 2012 to 2015. Changes in the TyG-BMI were classified using K-means clustering analysis, and the cumulative TyG-BMI was calculated as follows: (TyG-BMI₂₀₁₂ + TyG-BMI₂₀₁₅)/2 × time (2015-2012). Logistic regressions were used to determine the association between different TyG-BMI change classes and stroke incidence. Meanwhile, restricted cubic spline regression was applied to examine the potential nonlinear association of the cumulative TyG-BMI and stroke incidence. Weighted quantile sum regression was used to provide a comprehensive explanation of the TyG-BMI by calculating the weights of FBG, triglyceride-glucose (TG), and BMI.

Results: Of the 4583 participants (mean [SD] age at baseline, 58.68 [9.51] years), 2026 (44.9%) were men. During the 3 years of follow-up, 277 (6.0%) incident stroke cases were identified. After adjusting for potential confounders, compared to the participants with a consistently low TyG-BMI, the OR for a moderate TyG-BMI with a slow rising trend was 1.01 (95% CI 0.65-1.57), the OR for a high TyG-BMI with a slow rising trend was 1.62 (95% CI 1.11-2.32), and the OR for the highest TyG-BMI with a slow declining trend was 1.71 (95% CI 1.01-2.89). The association between the cumulative TyG-BMI and stroke risk was nonlinear (P_association = 0.017; P_nonlinearity = 0.012). TG emerged as the primary contributor when the weights were assigned to the constituent elements of the TyG-BMI (weight₂₀₁₂ = 0.466; weight₂₀₁₅ = 0.530).

Conclusions: Substantial changes in the TyG-BMI are independently associated with the risk of stroke in middle-aged and older adults. Monitoring long-term changes in the TyG-BMI may assist with the early identification of individuals at high risk of stroke.

Keywords: CHARLS; K-means clustering; Long-term changes; Stroke; Triglyceride glucose-body mass index.