Emissions leakage embodied in inter-provincial trade brings unexpected air quality and health benefits

Abstract

Inter-provincial trade can bring "emission leakage", and consequently influence the air quality and public health. However, there has been a lack of systematic research on air pollution and public health related to emission leakage embodied in inter-provincial trade of China. Here, we systematically evaluated for the first time the influence of emission leakage on national air pollution and related premature deaths in 2012 of China. Unexpected opposite influences of emission leakage on emission and air quality/public health were discovered. Emission leakage embodied in inter-provincial trade in 2012 of China led to an increase of 1.4 % to 4.8 % in national air pollutant emissions, but a decrease of 1.5 % (-0.8 μg·m^-3) in population-weighted concentration of PM_2.5, while avoiding 1.1 % (-1.4 × 10⁴ people) of premature deaths. Therefore, to reveal the intrinsic mechanism of this opposite influences, we proposed two coefficients, the Concentration per unit primary PM_2.5 emission (CPE, unit: μg·m^-3/t) and the Death per unit primary PM_2.5 emission (DPE, unit: people/t), to characterize the response of air quality and health to emission leakage embodied in inter-provincial trade. Statistical analysis indicated that both the above coefficients showed significant negative correlation (P < 0.05) with provincial PM_2.5 emissions changes. The findings offer a means of adjustment and its related evaluation parameters for the emission transfer caused by inter-provincial trade, thereby contributing to further improvement environmental and health benefits through inter-provincial trade.

Keywords: Air pollution; Emission leakage; Inter-provincial trade; Multi-regional input-output model; Public health.