The validity of Okun's Law in the case of Central Asia: The role of weather and energy factors

Abstract

This study investigates a modified version of the Okun's Law that incorporates energy consumption and temperature for five Central Asian countries, while it employs the ARDL methodology, spanning the period 1995-2018. While the original Okun's Law is not supported, the analysis does find support for the modified Law, suggesting the importance of regional specific factors. The results document the presence of a negative association between unemployment and real GNP both in the short and in the long run. The impact of energy consumption on unemployment is positive in the long run, while the temperature impacts unemployment both in the short and in the long run.

Keywords: Central Asia; Energy; Okun’s Law; Panel ARDL; Temperature.