Virological evidence of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 in Ecuador, a resource-limited setting

Emerg Microbes Infect. 2023 Dec;12(2):2259001. doi: 10.1080/22221751.2023.2259001. Epub 2023 Sep 12.

Abstract

Ecuador had substantial COVID-19-mortality during 2020 despite early implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Resource-limited settings like Ecuador have high proportions of informal labour which entail high human mobility, questioning efficacy of NPIs. We performed a retrospective observational study in Ecuador's national reference laboratory for viral respiratory infections during March 2020-February 2021 using stored respiratory specimens from 1950 patients, corresponding to 2.3% of all samples analysed within the Ecuadorian national surveillance system per week. During 2020, detection of SARS-CoV-2 (Pearson correlation; r = -0.74; p = 0.01) and other respiratory viruses (Pearson correlation; r = -0.68; p = 0.02) by real-time RT-PCR correlated negatively with NPIs stringency. Among respiratory viruses, adenoviruses (Fisher's exact-test; p = 0.026), parainfluenzaviruses (p = 0.04), enteroviruses (p < 0.0001) and metapneumoviruses (p < 0.0001) occurred significantly more frequently during months of absent or non-stringent NPIs (characterized by <55% stringency according to the Oxford stringency index data for Ecuador). Phylogenomic analyses of 632 newly characterized SARS-CoV-2 genomes revealed 100 near-parallel SARS-CoV-2 introductions during early 2020 in the absence of NPIs. NPI stringency correlated negatively with the number of circulating SARS-CoV-2 lineages during 2020 (r = -0.69; p = 0.02). Phylogeographic reconstructions showed differential SARS-CoV-2 dispersion patterns during 2020, with more short-distance transitions potentially associated with recreational activity during non-stringent NPIs. There were also fewer geographic transitions during strict NPIs (n = 450) than during non-stringent or absent NPIs (n = 580). Virological evidence supports that NPIs had an effect on virus spread and distribution in Ecuador, providing a template for future epidemics in resource-limited settings and contributing to a balanced assessment of societal costs entailed by strict NPIs.

Keywords: COVID-19; Ecuador; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; SARS-CoV-2; public health; respiratory infections.

Publication types

  • Observational Study

MeSH terms

  • Adenoviridae / genetics
  • COVID-19* / epidemiology
  • COVID-19* / prevention & control
  • Ecuador / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Resource-Limited Settings
  • Retrospective Studies
  • SARS-CoV-2 / genetics

Grants and funding

This work was supported by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) through the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) to JFD (project number 81272349).