Our brains continuously acquire and store memories through synaptic plasticity. However, spontaneous synaptic changes can also occur and pose a challenge for maintaining stable memories. Despite fluctuations in synapse size, recent studies have shown that key population-level synaptic properties remain stable over time. This raises the question of how local synaptic plasticity affects the global population-level synaptic size distribution and whether individual synapses undergoing plasticity escape the stable distribution to encode specific memories. To address this question, we (i) studied spontaneously evolving spines and (ii) induced synaptic potentiation at selected sites while observing the spine distribution pre- and post-stimulation. We designed a stochastic model to describe how the current size of a synapse affects its future size under baseline and stimulation conditions and how these local effects give rise to population-level synaptic shifts. Our study offers insights into how seemingly spontaneous synaptic fluctuations and local plasticity both contribute to population-level synaptic dynamics.
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