A study of temperature variability on admissions and deaths for cardiovascular diseases in Northwestern China

Abstract

Objective: To explore the effect of temperature variability (TV) on admissions and deaths for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs).

Method: The admissions data of CVDs were collected in 4 general hospitals in Jinchang City, Gansu Province from 2013 to 2016. The monitoring data of death for CVDs from 2013 to 2017 were collected through the Jinchang City Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was combined to analyze the effects of TV (daily temperature variability (DTV) and hourly temperature variability (HTV)) on the admissions and deaths for CVDs after adjusting confounding effects. Stratified analysis was conducted by age and gender. Then the attribution risk of TV was evaluated.

Results: There was a broadly linear correlation between TV and the admissions and deaths for CVDs, but only the association between TV and outpatient and emergency room (O&ER) visits for CVDs have statistically significant. DTV and HTV have similar lag effect. Every 1 ℃ increase in DTV and HTV was associated with a 3.61% (95% CI: 1.19% ~ 6.08%), 3.03% (95% CI: 0.27% ~ 5.86%) increase in O&ER visits for CVDs, respectively. There were 22.75% and 14.15% O&ER visits for CVDs can attribute to DTV and HTV exposure during 2013-2016. Males and the elderly may be more sensitive to the changes of TV. Greater effect of TV was observed in non-heating season than in heating season.

Conclusion: TV was an independent risk factor for the increase of O&ER visits for CVDs, suggesting effective guidance such as strengthening the timely prevention for vulnerable groups before or after exposure, which has important implications for risk management of CVDs.

Keywords: Admissions and deaths; Cardiovascular diseases; Distributed lag nonlinear model; Temperature variability.