Water, energy and food security are at the heart of the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Maintaining water-energy-food (WEF) system security is critical to sustainable socio-economic development. To clarify the trends in China's WEF system stress, this paper analyses the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of WEF system stress using panel data for 30 Chinese provinces from 2002 to 2020. Using an extended STIRPAT model, we discuss the influencing factors of WEF system stress and forecast the WEF system stress index (WEF_SI) for 2021-2030. We find that China's WEF_SI has a significant positive spatial autocorrelation, with energy stress being the dominant stress in China's WEF system. Second, GDP per capita, urban population density, education level per capita, technology level and effective irrigated area have spatial and temporal heterogeneity in their effects on WEF system stress. Third, the prediction results show that China's WEF system stress will decrease in 2021-2030 but to a lesser extent. The government should coordinate the relationship between water, energy and food based on the evolutionary characteristics and projected trends of each element and formulate differentiated policies according to the resource endowment of each region to promote the coordinated development of the WEF system.
Keywords: Influencing factors; Spatial and temporal heterogeneity; Sustainable development; Water-energy-food system stress.
© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.