Maritime transportation and people mobility in the early diffusion of COVID-19 in Croatia

Abstract

Introduction: The outbreak of COVID-19 in Europe began in early 2020, leading to the emergence of several waves of infection with varying timings across European countries. The largest wave of infection occurred in August-September. Croatia, known for being a hotspot of tourism in the Mediterranean region, raised concerns that it might have played a role in incubating the pandemic during the summer of 2020.

Methods: To investigate this possibility, we conducted a data-driven study to examine the potential influence of passenger mobility to and within Croatia, utilizing various modes of transportation. To achieve this, we integrated observational datasets into the "epidemic Renormalization Group" modeling framework.

Results: By comparing the models with epidemiological data, we found that in the case of Croatia in 2020, neither maritime nor train transportation played a prominent role in propagating the infection. Instead, our analysis highlighted the leading role of both road and airborne mobility in the transmission of the virus.

Discussion: The proposed framework serves to test hypotheses concerning the causation of infectious waves, offering the capacity to rule out unrelated factors from consideration.

Keywords: COVID-19; data analysis; diffusion; epidemiology; mobility.