Associations between SARS-CoV-2 infection and subsequent economic inactivity and employment status: pooled analyses of five linked longitudinal surveys

Richard J Shaw; Rebecca Rhead; Richard J Silverwood; Jacques Wels; Jingmin Zhu; Olivia Kl Hamilton; Giorgio Di Gessa; Ruth Ce Bowyer; Bettina Moltrecht; Michael J Green; Evangelia Demou; Serena Pattaro; Paola Zaninotto; Andy Boyd; Felix Greaves; Nish Chaturvedi; George B Ploubidis; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi

doi:10.1101/2023.07.31.23293422

Associations between SARS-CoV-2 infection and subsequent economic inactivity and employment status: pooled analyses of five linked longitudinal surveys

medRxiv [Preprint]. 2023 Aug 25:2023.07.31.23293422. doi: 10.1101/2023.07.31.23293422.

Authors

Richard J Shaw¹, Rebecca Rhead^{2

3}, Richard J Silverwood², Jacques Wels^{4

5}, Jingmin Zhu⁶, Olivia Kl Hamilton¹, Giorgio Di Gessa⁶, Ruth Ce Bowyer^{7

8}, Bettina Moltrecht², Michael J Green^{1

9}, Evangelia Demou¹, Serena Pattaro¹⁰, Paola Zaninotto⁶, Andy Boyd¹¹, Felix Greaves¹², Nish Chaturvedi⁴, George B Ploubidis², Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi¹

Affiliations

¹ MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
² Centre for Longitudinal Studies (CLS), UCL Social Research Institute, University College London, London, UK.
³ Department of Psychological Medicine, King's College London, London, UK.
⁴ MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing, University College London, London, UK.
⁵ Centre Metices, Université libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, BE.
⁶ Department of Epidemiology & Public Health, University College London, London, UK.
⁷ Department of Twin Research and Genetic Epidemiology, School of Life Course & Population Sciences, King's College London, London, UK.
⁸ AI For Science & Government, Alan Turing Institute, London, UK.
⁹ Division of Women's Community and Population Health, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC, USA.
¹⁰ Scottish Centre for Administrative Data Research (SCADR), University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
¹¹ Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
¹² Department of Primary Care and Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.

Abstract

Introduction: Following the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, record numbers of people became economically inactive (i.e., neither working nor looking for work), or non-employed (including unemployed job seekers and economically inactive people). A possible explanation is people leaving the workforce after contracting COVID-19. We investigated whether testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 is related to subsequent economic inactivity and non-employment, among people employed pre-pandemic.

Methods: The data came from five UK longitudinal population studies held by both the UK Longitudinal Linkage Collaboration (UK LLC; primary analyses) and the UK Data Service (UKDS; secondary analyses). We pooled data from five long established studies (1970 British Cohort Study, English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, 1958 National Child Development Study, Next Steps, and Understanding Society). The study population were aged 25-65 years between March 2020 to March 2021 and employed pre-pandemic. Outcomes were economic inactivity and non-employment measured at the time of the last follow-up survey (November 2020 to March 2021, depending on study). For the UK LLC sample (n=8,174), COVID-19 infection was indicated by a positive SARS-CoV-2 test in NHS England records. For the UKDS sample we used self-reported measures of COVID-19 infection (n=13,881). Logistic regression models estimated odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) adjusting for potential confounders including sociodemographic variables, pre-pandemic health and occupational class.

Results: Testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 was very weakly associated with economic inactivity (OR 1.08 95%CI 0.68-1.73) and non-employment status (OR 1.09. 95%CI 0.77-1.55) in the primary analyses. In secondary analyses, self-reported test-confirmed COVID-19 was not associated with either economic inactivity (OR 1.01 95%CI 0.70-1.44) or non-employment status (OR 1.03 95%CI 0.79-1.35).

Conclusions: Among people employed pre-pandemic, testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 was either weakly or not associated with increased economic inactivity or non-employment. Research on the recent increases in economic inactivity should focus on other potential causes.

Keywords: COVID-19; Economic inactivity; Employment Status; SARS-CoV-2; UK LLC.

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Preprint

Abstract

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