Ongoing CO2 monitoring verify CO2 emissions and sinks in China during 2018-2021

Junting Zhong; Xiaoye Zhang; Lifeng Guo; Deying Wang; Changhong Miao; Xiliang Zhang

doi:10.1016/j.scib.2023.08.039

Ongoing CO₂ monitoring verify CO₂ emissions and sinks in China during 2018-2021

Sci Bull (Beijing). 2023 Oct 30;68(20):2467-2476. doi: 10.1016/j.scib.2023.08.039. Epub 2023 Aug 21.

Authors

Junting Zhong¹, Xiaoye Zhang², Lifeng Guo³, Deying Wang⁴, Changhong Miao⁵, Xiliang Zhang⁶

Affiliations

¹ Monitoring and Assessment Center for Greenhouse Gases and Carbon Neutrality, Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of China Meteorological Administration, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; Laboratory of Climate Change Mitigation and Carbon Neutrality, Henan University, Zhengzhou 450001, China.
² Monitoring and Assessment Center for Greenhouse Gases and Carbon Neutrality, Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of China Meteorological Administration, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; Laboratory of Climate Change Mitigation and Carbon Neutrality, Henan University, Zhengzhou 450001, China. Electronic address: xiaoye@cma.gov.cn.
³ Monitoring and Assessment Center for Greenhouse Gases and Carbon Neutrality, Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of China Meteorological Administration, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; Laboratory of Climate Change Mitigation and Carbon Neutrality, Henan University, Zhengzhou 450001, China. Electronic address: guolf@cma.gov.cn.
⁴ Monitoring and Assessment Center for Greenhouse Gases and Carbon Neutrality, Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of China Meteorological Administration, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China.
⁵ Laboratory of Climate Change Mitigation and Carbon Neutrality, Henan University, Zhengzhou 450001, China.
⁶ Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.

PMID: 37652803
DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2023.08.039

Abstract

Accurate estimating CO₂ emissions and sinks is crucial in achieving carbon neutrality in China. However, CO₂ emissions from bottom-up inventories are uncertain at regional scales and lack independent verification from atmospheric perspectives. Here we integrated 39 high-precision CO₂ stations in China to top-down invert emission-sink variations at 45 km × 45 km and achieved a full range of inventories verification. The results show that China's CO₂ emissions are 15% higher than those of five bottom-up inventories, to an annual total of 3.40 Pg C a^-1 for 2018-2021. After deducting human and livestock respiration, the annual CO₂ emissions were 3.13 Pg C a^-1 (11.48 Pg CO₂ a^-1). The annual increase in emissions slowed from 3.7% in 2019 to 1.1% in 2020 and resumed growth to 4.0% in 2021, consistent with observed CO₂ growth rates in China. China's land CO₂ sink, deducting farmland sinks and lateral fluxes, was 0.57 Pg C a^-1 (2.09 Pg CO₂ a^-1) for 2018-2021 (higher than most global inverse models), accounting for ∼16.9% of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. The land sink in China decreased by -19.3% in 2019 due to a weak El Niño event and increased by 3.2% in 2020 and 13.7% in 2021. It is worth noting that inverse CO₂ emissions and sinks in western China still face large uncertainty due to limited CO₂ monitoring. Overall, our top-down estimates demonstrate spatiotemporal variations in CO₂ emissions and sinks from atmospheric perspectives and highlight challenges for different provinces in achieving 2060 carbon neutrality with verified estimates.

Keywords: CO(2) emission verification; CO(2) monitoring; China’s land sinks; Top-down inversion.