Land use change greatly affects the runoff characteristics of the basin, which in turn affects the distribution of surface water and groundwater in the region. Quantitative analyses of the hydrological response of watershed runoff to land use change are conducive to the formulation of sustainable water resource strategies. In this paper, the impact of land use change on runoff characteristics in the Jing River Basin was evaluated using the SWAT model, the land use pattern of the Jing River Basin in 2040 was predicted using CA-Markov model, and five land use change scenarios were set up in combination with the trend of land use transfer, and the response relationship between land use change and runoff hydrological characteristics in the basin was studied. The results show that the land use changes reduce runoff and change the hydrological cycle process of the basin. The hydrological response of different land use types varies significantly, but only has a less impact on annual runoff. Farmland has a promoting effect on production flow; woodland and grassland are not conducive to the formation of surface runoff and will increase underground runoff and evapotranspiration in the basin. The increase in vegetation coverage after returning farmland to woodlands and grasslands has reduced surface runoff, increased the recharge of groundwater, and played a positive role in ecological restoration in the river basin. The research results are of great significance for understanding the hydrological consequences of land use change and the rational planning of land use patterns in river basins.
Keywords: CA-Markov; Land use change; Runoff response; SWAT; Surface runoff; Underground runoff.
© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.