Identification of the spatial distribution, driving forces, and future trends of agricultural methane (AGM) emissions is necessary to develop differentiated emission control pathways and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 in China, which is the largest emitter of AGM. However, such research is currently lacking. Here, we estimated China's AGM emissions from 2010 to 2020 and then decomposed six factors that affect AGM emissions via the LMDI model. The results indicated that the AGM emissions in China in 2020 were 23.39 Tg, with enteric fermentation being the largest source, accounting for 43.9% of the total emissions. A total of 39.3% of the AGM emissions were from western China. The main driver of AGM emission reduction was emission intensity, accounting for 59% and 33.7% of methane emission reduction in the livestock sector and rice cultivation, respectively. Additionally, higher levels of urbanization contributed to AGM emission reductions, accounting for 31.3% and 43.0% of the livestock sector and rice cultivation emission reductions, respectively. Based on the SSP-RCP scenarios, we found that China's AGM emissions in 2060 were reduced by approximately 90% through a combination of technology measures, behavioral changes, and innovation policies. Our study provides a scientific basis for optimizing existing AGM emission reduction policies not only in China but also potentially in other high AGM-emitting countries, such as India and Brazil.
Keywords: Agricultural methane emission; LMDI model; Livestock sector; Rice cultivation; Scenario analysis.