Climate change and daily outpatient visits for dermatomyositis in Hefei, China: a time-series study

Abstract

With the deepening of research on the correlation between meteorological factors and autoimmune diseases, the relationship between climate change and dermatomyositis (DM) has come to our attention. This study aimed to explore the short-term correlation between meteorological factors and DM outpatient visits. Daily records of hospital outpatient visits for DM, air pollutants, and meteorological factor data in Hefei from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2021 were obtained. The mean temperature (MT), relative humidity (RH), diurnal temperature range (DTR), and temperature change between neighboring days (TCN) were used to quantify environmental temperature and humidity and their variations. And we performed a time series analysis using a generalized linear model (GLM) in combination with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM). Furthermore, gender and age were further stratified for the analysis. The sensitivity analysis was also performed. A total of 4028 DM outpatient visits were recorded during this period. There were statistically significant associations of low temperature (5th, 1.5 °C), low RH (1st, 48.6%), high RH (99th, 99%), high DTR (75th, 12.6°c), and low TCN (10th, -2.7 °C) that were associated with risk of DM outpatient visits, with lag days of 30, 16, 16, 10, and 14, respectively. Moreover, women were more susceptible to high RH exposure and low TCN exposure, while the elderly were more susceptible to low temperature. This study concluded that exposure to low temperature, extreme RH, and temperature changes (especially high DTR and low TCN) was associated with an increased risk of DM outpatient visits.

Keywords: Dermatomyositis; Diurnal temperature range (DTR); Humidity; Meteorological factors; Temperature change between neighboring days (TCN); Time series.