Kappa Free Light Chain Index Predicts Disease Course in Clinically and Radiologically Isolated Syndromes

Abstract

Background and objectives: To evaluate whether the kappa free light chain index (K-index) can predict the occurrence of new T2-weighted MRI lesions (T2L) and clinical events in clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) and radiologically isolated syndrome (RIS).

Methods: All consecutive patients presenting for the diagnostic workup, including CSF analysis, of clinical and/or MRI suspicion of multiple sclerosis (MS) since May 1, 2018, were evaluated. All patients diagnosed with CIS and RIS with at least 1-year follow-up were included. Clinical events and new T2L were collected during follow-up. The K-index performances in predicting new T2L and a clinical event were evaluated using time-dependent ROC analyses. The time to clinical event or new T2L was estimated using survival analysis according to the binarized K-index using an independent cutoff of 8.9, and the ability of each variable to predict outcomes was compared using the Harrell c-index.

Results: One hundred and eighty two patients (146 CIS and 36 RIS, median age 39 [30; 48] y-o, 70% females) were included with a median follow-up of 21 [13, 33] months. One hundred five (58%) patients (85 CIS and 20 RIS) experienced new T2L, and 28 (15%; 21 CIS and 7 RIS) experienced a clinical event. The K-index could predict new T2L over time in CIS (area under the curve [AUC] ranging from 0.86 to 0.96) and in RIS (AUC ranging from 0.84 to 0.54) but also a clinical event in CIS (AUC ranging from 0.75 to 0.87). Compared with oligoclonal bands (OCBs), the K-index had a better sensitivity and a slight lower specificity in predicting new T2L and clinical events in both populations. In the predictive model, the K-index was the variable that best predict new T2L in both CIS and RIS but also clinical events in CIS (c-index ranging from 0.70 to 0.77), better than the other variables, including OCB.

Discussion: This study provides evidence that the K-index predicts new T2L in CIS and RIS but also clinical attack in patients with CIS. We suggest adding the K-index in the further MS diagnosis criteria revisions as a dissemination-in-time biomarker.