Distribution pattern and change prediction of Phellodendron habitat in China under climate change

Yanghui Zhao; Yafeng Wen; Wenqian Zhang; Chuncheng Wang; Yadan Yan; Siwen Hao; Donglin Zhang

doi:10.1002/ece3.10374

Distribution pattern and change prediction of Phellodendron habitat in China under climate change

Ecol Evol. 2023 Aug 25;13(8):e10374. doi: 10.1002/ece3.10374. eCollection 2023 Aug.

Authors

Yanghui Zhao^{1

2

3}, Yafeng Wen^{1

2

3}, Wenqian Zhang^{1

2

3}, Chuncheng Wang^{1

2

3}, Yadan Yan^{1

2

3}, Siwen Hao^{1

2

3}, Donglin Zhang^{1

2

4}

Affiliations

¹ College of Landscape Architecture Central South University of Forestry and Technology Changsha China.
² Hunan Big Data Engineering Technology Research Center of Natural Protected Landscape Resources Changsha China.
³ Yuelushan Laboratory Carbon Sinks Forests Variety Innovation Center Changsha China.
⁴ Department of Horticulture University of Georgia Georgia Athens USA.

Abstract

Phellodendron has always been of great significance in promoting human health and ecological restoration. However, human activities and climate change have severely affected habitat, population dynamics and sustainable use of Phellodendron. Little is known about the geographical distribution pattern and their responses to climate change of Phellodendron. In order to reveal the impact of climate change on Phellodendron, we conducted a study based on natural distribution data of two species (297 occurrence points), 20 environmental factors, and an optimized MaxEnt model. Our results identified the main environmental factors influencing Phellodendron, predicted their potential geographical distribution, and assessed migration trends under climate change in China. Our analysis showed that Ph. amurense and Ph. chinense have potential suitable habitats of 62.89 × 10⁴ and 70.71 × 10⁴ km², respectively. Temperature and precipitation were found to play an essential role in shaping the present geographical distribution of Phellodendron populations. Based on two future climate scenarios, we forecasted that the potential suitable habitat of Ph. amurense would decrease by 12.52% (SSP245) and increase by 25.28% (SSP585), while Ph. chinense would decline by 19.61% (SSP245) and 15.78% (SSP585) in the late-21st century. The potential suitable habitats of Ph. amurense and Ph. chinense would shift to northward and westward, respectively. Hydrothermal change was found to be the primary driver of the suitable habitat of Phellodendron populations in the future. We recommend establishing nature reserves for existing Phellodendron populations, especially Ph. chinense. Our study provided a practical framework for the impact of climate change on the suitable habitat of Phellodendron species and guided regional cultivation, long-term conservation, and sustainable use.

Keywords: MaxEnt model; Phellodendron; climate change; geographical distribution; parameter optimization.

Associated data

Dryad/10.5061/dryad.wpzgmsbrq