The challenge of population aging for mitigating deaths from PM2.5 air pollution in China

Fangjin Xu; Qingxu Huang; Huanbi Yue; Xingyun Feng; Haoran Xu; Chunyang He; Peng Yin; Brett A Bryan

doi:10.1038/s41467-023-40908-4

The challenge of population aging for mitigating deaths from PM_2.5 air pollution in China

Nat Commun. 2023 Aug 26;14(1):5222. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-40908-4.

Authors

Fangjin Xu^{1

2

3}, Qingxu Huang^{4

5

6}, Huanbi Yue⁷, Xingyun Feng^{1

2}, Haoran Xu^{1

8}, Chunyang He^{1

9

10

11}, Peng Yin¹², Brett A Bryan¹³

Affiliations

¹ State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
² School of Natural Resources, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
³ College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China.
⁴ State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China. qxhuang@bnu.edu.cn.
⁵ School of Natural Resources, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China. qxhuang@bnu.edu.cn.
⁶ Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China. qxhuang@bnu.edu.cn.
⁷ School of International Affairs and Public Administration, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China.
⁸ Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
⁹ Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
¹⁰ Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education, Beijing, 100875, China.
¹¹ Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, People's Government of Qinghai Province and Beijing Normal University, Xining, China.
¹² National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100050, China.
¹³ School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Melbourne, VIC3125, Australia.

Abstract

Estimating the health burden of air pollution against the background of population aging is of great significance for achieving the Sustainable Development Goal 3.9 which aims to substantially reduce the deaths and illnesses from air pollution. Here, we estimated spatiotemporal changes in deaths attributable to PM_2.5 air pollution in China from 2000 to 2035 and examined the drivers. The results show that from 2019 to 2035, deaths were projected to decease 15.4% (6.6%-20.7%, 95% CI) and 8.4% (0.6%-13.5%) under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenario, respectively, but increase 10.4% (5.1%-20.5%) and 18.1% (13.0%-28.3%) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios. Population aging will be the leading contributor to increased deaths attributable to PM_2.5 air pollution, which will counter the positive gains achieved by improvements in air pollution and healthcare. Region-specific measures are required to mitigate the health burden of air pollution and this requires long-term efforts and mutual cooperation among regions in China.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Air Pollution*
China / epidemiology
Health Facilities
Particulate Matter / adverse effects

Substances

Particulate Matter