Essential thrombocythemia (ET) and prefibrotic primary myelofibrosis (prePMF) initially have a similar phenotypic presentation with thrombocytosis. The aim of our study was to determine significant clinical-laboratory parameters at presentation to differentiate prePMF from ET as well as to develop and validate a predictive diagnostic prePMF model. This retrospective study included 464 patients divided into ET (289 pts) and prePMF (175 pts) groups. The model was built using data from a development cohort (229 pts; 143 ET, 86 prePMF), which was then tested in an internal validation cohort (235 pts; 146 ET, 89 prePMF). The most important prePMF predictors in the multivariate logistic model were age ≥ 60 years (RR = 2.2), splenomegaly (RR = 13.2), and increased lactat-dehidrogenase (RR = 2.8). Risk scores were assigned according to derived relative risk (RR) for age ≥ 60 years (1 point), splenomegaly (2 points), and increased lactat-dehidrogenase (1 point). Positive predictive value (PPV) for pre-PMF diagnosis with a score of ≥points was 69.8%, while for a score of ≥3 it was 88.2%. Diagnostic performance had similar values in the validation cohort. In MPN patients with thrombocytosis at presentation, the application of the new model enables differentiation of pre-PMF from ET, which is clinically relevant considering that these diseases have different prognoses and treatments.
Keywords: differential diagnosis; essential thrombocythemia (ET); predictive model; prefibrotic primary myelofibrosis (pre-PMF).