Prediction of postoperative recurrence in resectable pancreatic body/tail adenocarcinoma: a novel risk stratification approach using a CT-based nomogram

Abstract

Objectives: To identify prognostic CT features that predict recurrence in patients with resectable pancreatic body/tail adenocarcinoma (PBTA) and construct a CT-based nomogram for preoperative risk stratification.

Methods: A total of 258 patients with resectable PBTA who underwent upfront surgery were retrospectively enrolled (development cohort, n = 172; validation cohort, n = 86), and their clinical and CT features were analyzed. Stepwise Cox proportional hazard analysis was performed to identify prognostic features and construct a predictive nomogram for recurrence-free survival (RFS). The prognostic performance of the CT-based nomogram was validated and compared to the 8^th American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) pathological staging system.

Results: In the development cohort, the following five CT features for predicting recurrence were identified to construct the nomogram: tumor density in the venous phase, tumor necrosis, adjacent organ invasion, splenic vein invasion, and superior mesenteric vein/portal vein abutment. In the validation cohort, the CT-based nomogram showed a concordance index of 0.65 (95% confidence interval: 0.58-0.73), which was higher than the 8^th AJCC staging system. The area under the curves of the nomogram for predicting recurrence at 0.5, 1, and 2 years were 0.66, 0.71, and 0.72, respectively. Patients were categorized into high- and low-risk groups with 1-year recurrence probabilities of 0.73 and 0.43, respectively.

Conclusions: The proposed nomogram provided accurate recurrence risk stratification for patients with resectable PBTA in a preoperative setting and may be used to facilitate clinical decision-making.

Clinical relevance statement: The proposed CT-based nomogram, based on easily available CT features, may serve as an effective and convenient tool for stratifying further the recurrence risk of patients with pancreatic body/tail adenocarcinoma.

Key points: • The CT-based nomogram, incorporating five commonly used CT features, successfully preoperatively stratified patients with resectable PBTA into distinct prognosis groups. • Tumor density in the venous phase, tumor necrosis, splenic vein invasion, adjacent organ invasion, and superior mesenteric vein/portal vein abutment were associated with RFS in patients with resectable PBTA. • The CT-based nomogram exhibited better predictive performance for recurrence than the 8^th AJCC staging system.

Keywords: Carcinoma; Nomogram; Pancreatic neoplasms; Recurrence; X-ray computed tomography.