Optimized spatial and temporal pattern for coral bleaching heat stress alerts for China's coral reefs

Abstract

Most studies on coral bleaching alerts use common Degree Heating Week (DHW) thresholds; however, these may underestimate historical patterns of heat stress for coral reef ecosystems. Taking an optimized DHW threshold for coral bleaching alerts for Coral Reef Watch (CRW) and Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) products, we analyzed the precise spatial and temporal pattern of heat stress on China's coral reefs from 2010 to 2021 in the South China Sea (SCS) and the Beibu Gulf (BG). We compared acute heat stress using common and optimized thresholds. Results indicated that the ocean warming rate in 2010-2021 was approximately 0.43 ± 0.22 °C/10a, showing a significant increase in the northern SCS and the BG. More severe bleaching events were predicted by the optimized thresholds and the high-frequency areas were mainly in the northern SCS. The number and intensity of years with severe heat stress anomalies was in the order 2020 > 2014 > 2010 > 2015. Heat stress duration was the longest in the Xisha Islands among offshore archipelagos, and longest in 2020-2021 in Weizhou Island in BG in the relative high-latitude inshore reefs. These abnormal events were mainly caused by El Niño, but La Niña was also involved in 2020.

Keywords: Beibu Gulf; Coral bleaching; Coral reef; Heat stress; South China Sea; Spatial and temporal pattern.