Background and aims: Preoperative prediction of microvascular invasion (MVI) using a noninvasive method remain unresolved, especially in HBV-related in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). This study aimed to build and validate a preoperative prediction model for MVI in HBV-related ICC.
Methods: Patients with HBV-associated ICC undergoing curative surgical resection were identified. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the independent risk factors of MVI in the training cohort. Then, a prediction model was built by enrolling the independent risk factors. The predictive performance was validated by receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) and calibration in the validation cohort.
Results: Consecutive 626 patients were identified and randomly divided into the training (418, 67%) and validation (208, 33%) cohorts. Multivariate analysis showed that TBIL, CA19-9, tumor size, tumor number, and preoperative image lymph node metastasis were independently associated with MVI. Then, a model was built by enrolling former fiver risk factors. In the validation cohort, the performance of this model showed good calibration. The area under the curve was 0.874 (95% CI: 0.765-0.894) and 0.729 (95%CI: 0.706-0.751) in the training and validation cohort, respectively. Decision curve analysis showed an obvious net benefit from the model.
Conclusion: Based on clinical data, an easy model was built for the preoperative prediction of MVI, which can assist clinicians in surgical decision-making and adjuvant therapy.
Keywords: Hepatitis B virus; Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma; Microvascular invasion; Prediction model; Preoperative.
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