Ecosystem-level responses to multiple stressors using a time-dynamic food-web model: The case of a re-oligotrophicated coastal embayment (Saronikos Gulf, E Mediterranean)

Georgia Papantoniou; Soultana Zervoudaki; Georgia Assimakopoulou; Maria Th Stoumboudi; Konstantinos Tsagarakis

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165882

Ecosystem-level responses to multiple stressors using a time-dynamic food-web model: The case of a re-oligotrophicated coastal embayment (Saronikos Gulf, E Mediterranean)

Sci Total Environ. 2023 Dec 10:903:165882. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165882. Epub 2023 Aug 11.

Authors

Georgia Papantoniou¹, Soultana Zervoudaki², Georgia Assimakopoulou², Maria Th Stoumboudi³, Konstantinos Tsagarakis³

Affiliations

¹ Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Institute of Marine Biological Resources and Inland Waters, 46.7 km Athinon-Souniou Ave, P.O. BOX 712, Anavyssos, GR19013, Greece. Electronic address: geopapant@hcmr.gr.
² Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Institute of Oceanography, 46.7 km Athinon-Souniou Ave, P.O. BOX 712, Anavyssos, GR19013, Greece.
³ Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Institute of Marine Biological Resources and Inland Waters, 46.7 km Athinon-Souniou Ave, P.O. BOX 712, Anavyssos, GR19013, Greece.

PMID: 37574071
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165882

Abstract

Multiple stressors may combine in unexpected ways to alter the structure of ecological systems, however, our current ability to evaluate their ecological impact is limited due to the lack of information concerning historic trophic interactions and ecosystem dynamics. Saronikos Gulf is a heavily exploited embayment in the E Mediterranean that has undergone significant ecological alterations during the last 20 years including a shift from long-standing eutrophic to oligotrophic conditions in the mid-2000's. Here we used a historical Ecopath food-web model of Saronikos Gulf (1998-2000) and fitted the time-dynamic module Ecosim to biomass and catch time series for the period 2001-2020. We then projected the model forward in time from 2021 to 2050 under 8 scenarios to simulate ecosystem responses to the individual and combined effect of sea surface temperature increase, primary productivity shifts and fishing effort release. Incorporating trophic interactions, climate warming, fishing and primary production improved model fit, depicting that both fishing and the environment have historically influenced ecosystem dynamics. Retrospective simulations of the model captured historical biomass and catch trends of commercially important stocks and reproduced successfully the marked recovery of marine resources 10 years after re-oligotrophication. In future scenarios increasing temperature had a detrimental impact on most functional groups, increasing and decreasing productivity had a positive and negative effect on all respectively, while fishing reductions principally benefited top predators. Combined stressors produced synergistic or antagonistic effects depending on the direction and magnitude of change of each stressor in isolation while their overall impact seemed to be strongly mediated via food-web interactions. Such holistic approaches advance of our mechanistic understanding of ecosystems enabling us to develop more effective management strategies in the face of a rapidly changing marine environment.

Keywords: Climate warming; Combined stressors; Cumulative effects; Fishing pressure; Primary production; Trophic interactions.