Crop production on the Chinese Loess Plateau under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios

Dan Wang; Youjia Liang; Lijun Liu; Jiejun Huang; Zhangcai Yin

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166158

Crop production on the Chinese Loess Plateau under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios

Sci Total Environ. 2023 Dec 10:903:166158. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166158. Epub 2023 Aug 12.

Authors

Dan Wang¹, Youjia Liang², Lijun Liu³, Jiejun Huang¹, Zhangcai Yin¹

Affiliations

¹ School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China.
² School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China. Electronic address: yjliang@whut.edu.cn.
³ College of Resources and Environment, Yangtze University, Wuhan 430100, China.

PMID: 37574052
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166158

Abstract

Global warming is a crucial factor affecting crop production in ecologically vulnerable areas. Warming-induced changes in the yields of different crops could pose significant challenges to food security and sustainability assessment. In this study, the World Food Studies model and a remote sensing product assimilation algorithm were used to develop a spatially explicit crop assimilation model applicable to the Loess Plateau of China. The model was used to simulate potential changes in actual yields and yield gaps for winter wheat and maize under three typical climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) from 2016 to 2060. Average yields increased in both winter wheat (2.38 %-4.96 %) and maize (5.41 %-6.85 %), with maize (RCP 4.5 > RCP 8.5 > RCP 2.6) more adapted to climate warming than winter wheat (RCP 2.6 > RCP 8.5 > RCP 4.5) in terms of yield increase rate. The yield increase and yield gap for winter wheat decreased most significantly in RCP2.6 (-2.28 %). Maize yield did not exceed 80 % of the potential yield in any scenario. The average phenological periods for winter wheat and maize are predicted be 2-4 and 9-16 days earlier, respectively. Crop yields were negatively correlated with radiation and yield gaps were positively correlated with precipitation. Future climate change will likely cause dramatic interannual crop yield fluctuations. Winter wheat is predicted to experience yield stagnation after 2050, whereas maize production potential will increase briefly before experiencing a long-term decline in growth. The results of this multi-scenario simulation assessment of crop production provide scientific support for implementing climate-adapted crop management strategies and integrated dry-crop-irrigated agriculture to meet food security objectives in this ecologically fragile area. We recommend integrated management measures to ensure regional food security through crop variety improvement, irrigation regulation, and planting structure optimization.

Keywords: Climate change; Data assimilation; Food security; WOFOST.