Postoperative elevated cardiac troponin levels predict all-cause mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events following noncardiac surgery: A dose-response meta-analysis of prospective studies

Abstract

Study objective: To perform a dose-response meta-analysis for the association between postoperative myocardial injury (PMI) in noncardiac surgery and the risk of all-cause mortality or major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE).

Design: Dose-response meta-analysis of prospective studies with weighted (WL) or generalized (GL) linear and restricted cubic spline (RCS) regression.

Setting: Teaching hospitals.

Patients: Adult patients undergoing noncardiac surgery.

Interventions: No.

Measurements: The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. The secondary outcome was MACE.

Main results: 29 studies (53,518 patients) were included. The overall incidence of PMI was 26.0% (95% CI 21.0% to 32.0%). Compared to those without PMI, patients with PMI had an increased risk of all-cause mortality at short- (<12 months) (cardiac troponin[cTn]I: unadj OR 1.71,95%CI 1.22 to 2.41, P < 0.001; cTnT: unadj OR 2.33,95%CI 2.07 to 2.63, P < 0.001), and long-term (≥ 12 months) (cTnI: unadj OR 1.80, 95%CI 1.63 to 1.99; cTnT: unadj OR 1.47,95%CI 1.33 to 1.62) (All P < 0.001) follow-up. For MACE, the group with elevated values was associated with an increased risk (cTnI: unadj OR 1.98, 95% CI 1.13 to 3.47, P = 0.018; cTnT: unadj OR 2.29, 95% CI 1.88 to 2.79, P < 0.001). Dose-response analysis showed positive associations between PMI (per 1× upper reference limit[URL] increment) and all-cause mortality both at short- (unadj OR) (WL, OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.10; GL, OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.07; RCS in the range of 1-2× URL, OR = 2.43, 95%CI 2.25 to 2.62) and long-term follow-up (unadj HR) (WL, OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.17; GL, OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.16; RCS in the range of 1-2.75× URL, OR = 1.23, 95%CI 1.13 to 1.33), and MACE at longest follow-up (unadj OR) (WL: OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.49 to 1.57; GL: OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.50; RCS in the range of 1-2 x URL, OR = 3.10, 95%CI 2.51 to 3.81) (All P < 0.001). For mild cTn increase below URL, the risk of mortality increased with every increment of 0.25xURL (WL, OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.03; GL, OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.07; RCS in the range of 0-0.5 URL, OR = 9.41, 95% CI 7.41 to 11.95) (All P < 0.001).

Conclusions: This study shows positive WL or GL and RCS dose-response relationships between PMI and all-cause mortality at short (< 12 mons)- and long-term (≥ 12 mons) follow-up, and MACE at longest follow-up. For mild cTn increase below URL, the risk of mortality also increases even with every increment of 0.25× URL.

Keywords: All-cause mortality; Cardiac troponin; Major adverse cardiovascular events; Myocardial injury; Noncardiac surgery; meta-analysis.