The combination of Cyclin-dependent kinase 4/6 inhibitors (CDK4/6i) and endocrine therapy (ET) is the standard of care for hormone receptor-positive (HR + ), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HER2-) metastatic breast cancer (MBC). Currently, there are no robust biomarkers that can predict response to CDK4/6i, and it is not clear which patients benefit from this therapy. Since MBC patients with liver metastases have a poorer prognosis, developing predictive biomarkers that could identify patients likely to respond to CDK4/6i is clinically important. Here we show the ability of imaging texture biomarkers before and a few cycles after CDK4/6i therapy, to predict early response and overall survival (OS) on 73 MBC patients with known liver metastases who received palbociclib plus ET from two sites. The delta radiomic model was associated with OS in validation set (HR: 2.4; 95% CI, 1.06-5.6; P = 0.035; C-index = 0.77). Compared to RECIST response, delta radiomic features predicted response with area under the curve (AUC) = 0.72, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67-0.88. Our study revealed that radiomics features can predict a lack of response earlier than standard anatomic/RECIST 1.1 assessment and warrants further study and clinical validation.
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