Objective: Identification of patients at risk of adverse outcome from heart failure (HF) at an early stage is a priority. Growth differentiation factor (GDF)-15 has emerged as a potentially useful biomarker. This study sought to identify determinants of circulating GDF-15 and evaluate its prognostic value, in patients at risk of HF or with HF but before first hospitalisation.
Methods: Prospective, longitudinal cohort study of 2166 consecutive patients in stage A-C HF undergoing cardiovascular magnetic resonance and measurement of GDF-15. Multivariable linear regression investigated determinants of GDF-15. Cox proportional hazards modelling, Net Reclassification Improvement and decision curve analysis examined its incremental prognostic value. Primary outcome was a composite of first hospitalisation for HF or all-cause mortality. Median follow-up was 1093 (939-1231) days.
Results: Major determinants of GDF-15 were age, diabetes and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, although despite extensive phenotyping, only around half of the variability of GDF-15 could be explained (R2 0.51). Log-transformed GDF-15 was the strongest predictor of outcome (HR 2.12, 95% CI 1.71 to 2.63) and resulted in a risk prediction model with higher predictive accuracy (continuous Net Reclassification Improvement 0.26; 95% CI 0.13 to 0.39) and with greater clinical net benefit across the entire range of threshold probabilities.
Conclusion: In patients at risk of HF, or with HF but before first hospitalisation, GDF-15 provides unique information and is highly predictive of hospitalisation for HF or all-cause mortality, leading to more accurate risk stratification that can improve clinical decision making.
Trial registration number: NCT02326324.
Keywords: Heart failure; RISK STRATIFICATION.
© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.