The International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer Pleural Mesothelioma Staging Project: Updated Modeling of Prognostic Factors in Pleural Mesothelioma

Abstract

Introduction: The International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer developed an international pleural mesothelioma database to improve staging. Data entered from 1995 to 2009 (training data set) were analyzed previously to evaluate supplemental prognostic factors. We evaluated these factors with new clinical data to determine whether the previous models could be improved.

Methods: Patients entered into the database from 2009 to 2019 (validation cohort) were assessed for the association between previous prognosticators and overall survival using Cox proportional hazards regression with bidirectional stepwise selection. Additional variables were analyzed and models were compared using Harrell's C-index.

Results: The training data set included 3101 patients and the validation cohort, 1733 patients. For the multivariable pathologic staging model applied to the training cohort, C-index was 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.656-0.705). For the validation data set (n = 497), C-index was 0.650 (95% CI: 0.614-0.685), and pathologic stage, histologic diagnosis, sex, adjuvant therapy, and platelet count were independently associated with survival. Adding anemia to the model increased the C-index to 0.652 (95% CI: 0.618-0.686). A basic presentation model including all parameters before staging yielded a C-index of 0.668 (95% CI: 0.641-0.695). In comparison, the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer model yielded C-indices of 0.550 (95% CI: 0.511-0.589) and 0.577 (95% CI: 0.550-0.604) for pathologic staging and presentation models, respectively.

Conclusions: Although significant predictors differed slightly, the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer training model performed well in the validation set and better than the model of the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer. International collaboration is critical to improve outcomes in this rare disease.

Keywords: Extrapleural pneumonectomy; Mesothelioma; Pleurectomy/decortication; Prognostic factors; Staging.