The advancement of electricity market reform highlights the need for China's photovoltaic (PV) industry to enter the stage of market competition. Under the carbon neutrality, what impacts electricity market reform has on China's PV industry is an important issue that needs to be considered. This paper analyzes the driving mechanism of the marketed on-grid price and constructs a system framework for the internal connection within the PV industry under the background of carbon neutrality. Then, two system dynamics (SD) models are built to perform the numerical simulation and analyze the evolution process. The results indicate that during the market competition stage, (i) the on-grid price will be stable at about 0.07 yuan/kWh by 2060; (ii) China's PV industry will go through three stages in the future: the first stage is the "rush to install" period for carbon peaking before 2030, followed by the "sluggish installation" period from 2030 to 2038. The third stage is the outbreak period of "PV + multi-scenarios."; (iii) under three scenarios by 2060, the proportion of PV power generation will account for 46%, 39%, and 32%, respectively, which are higher than those under the benchmark on-grid price; (iv) it is necessary for the government and enterprises to continue increasing support for research and development (R&D). Finally, we put forward corresponding policy recommendations.
Keywords: Carbon neutrality; Electricity market reform; Marketed on-grid price; PV + multi-scenarios; Photovoltaic industry; System dynamics model.
© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.