Genomic epidemiology offers high resolution estimates of serial intervals for COVID-19

Nat Commun. 2023 Aug 10;14(1):4830. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-40544-y.

Abstract

Serial intervals - the time between symptom onset in infector and infectee - are a fundamental quantity in infectious disease control. However, their estimation requires knowledge of individuals' exposures, typically obtained through resource-intensive contact tracing efforts. We introduce an alternate framework using virus sequences to inform who infected whom and thereby estimate serial intervals. We apply our technique to SARS-CoV-2 sequences from case clusters in the first two COVID-19 waves in Victoria, Australia. We find that our approach offers high resolution, cluster-specific serial interval estimates that are comparable with those obtained from contact data, despite requiring no knowledge of who infected whom and relying on incompletely-sampled data. Compared to a published serial interval, cluster-specific serial intervals can vary estimates of the effective reproduction number by a factor of 2-3. We find that serial interval estimates in settings such as schools and meat processing/packing plants are shorter than those in healthcare facilities.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19* / epidemiology
  • Contact Tracing
  • Genomics
  • Humans
  • SARS-CoV-2 / genetics
  • Victoria