Studies of microbial evolution, especially in applied contexts, have focused on the role of selection in shaping predictable, adaptive responses to the environment. However, chance events - the appearance of novel genetic variants and their establishment, i.e. outgrowth from a single cell to a sizeable population - also play critical initiating roles in adaptation. Stochasticity in establishment has received little attention in microbiology, potentially due to lack of awareness as well as practical challenges in quantification. However, methods for high-replicate culturing, mutant labelling and detection, and statistical inference now make it feasible to experimentally quantify the establishment probability of specific adaptive genotypes. I review methods that have emerged over the past decade, including experimental design and mathematical formulas to estimate establishment probability from data. Quantifying establishment in further biological settings and comparing empirical estimates to theoretical predictions represent exciting future directions. More broadly, recognition that adaptive genotypes may be stochastically lost while rare is significant both for interpreting common lab assays and for designing interventions to promote or inhibit microbial evolution.
Keywords: demographic stochasticity; establishment probability; experimental evolution; extinction; fixation probability; gene surfing; genetic drift; mutation; population dynamics; predictability; seeding assay; statistical inference.