Background: The efficacy and toxicity of tacrolimus are closely related to its trough blood concentrations. Identifying the influencing factors of pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus in the early postoperative period is conducive to the optimization of the individualized tacrolimus administration protocol and to help liver transplant (LT) recipients achieve the target blood concentrations.
Objective: This study aimed to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) for predicting the blood concentration of tacrolimus soon after liver transplantation and for identifying determinants of the concentration based on Shapley additive explanation (SHAP).
Methods: In this retrospective study, we enrolled 31 recipients who were first treated with liver transplantation from the Department of Liver Transplantation and Hepatic Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University (Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital) from November 2020 to May 2021. The basic information, biochemical indexes, use of concomitant drugs, and genetic factors of organ donors and recipients were used for the ANN model inputs, and the output was the steady-state trough concentration (C0) of tacrolimus after oral administration in LT recipients. The ANN model was established to predict C0 of tacrolimus, SHAP was applied to the trained model, and the SHAP value of each input was calculated to analyze quantitatively the influencing factors for the output C0.
Results: A back-propagation ANN model with 3 hidden layers was established using deep learning. The mean prediction error was 0.27 ± 0.75 ng/mL; mean absolute error, 0.60 ± 0.52 ng/mL; correlation coefficient between predicted and actual C0 values, 0.9677; and absolute prediction error of all blood concentrations obtained by the ANN model, ≤3.0 ng/mL. The results indicated that the following factors had the most significant effect on C0: age, daily drug dose, genotype at CYP3A5 polymorphism rs776746 in both recipient and donor, and concomitant use of caspofungin. The predicted C0 value of tacrolimus in LT recipients increased in a dose-dependent manner when the daily dose exceeded 3 mg, whereas it decreased with age when LT recipients were older than 48 years. The predicted C0 was higher when recipients and donors had the genotype CYP3A5*3*3 than when they had the genotype CYP3A5*1. The predicted C0 value also increased with the use of caspofungin or Wuzhi capsule.
Conclusion and relevance: The established ANN model can be used to predict the C0 value of tacrolimus in LT recipients with high accuracy and good predictive ability, serving as a reference for personalized treatment in the early stage after liver transplantation.
Keywords: artificial neural network; blood concentration; liver transplantation; tacrolimus.