A hybrid approach of random forest and random parameters logit model of injury severity modeling of vulnerable road users involved crashes

Abstract

Vulnerable road users (VRUs) involved crashes are a major road safety concern due to the high likelihood of fatal and severe injury. The use of data-driven methods and heterogeneity models separately have limitations in crash data analysis. This study develops a hybrid approach of Random Forest based SHAP algorithm (RF-SHAP) and random parameters logit modeling framework to explore significant factors and identify the underlying interaction effects on injury severity of VRUs-involved crashes in Shenyang (China) from 2015 to 2017. The results show that the hybrid approach can uncover more underlying causality, which not only quantifies the impact of individual factors on injury severity, but also finds the interaction effects between the factors with random parameters and fixed parameters. Seven factors are found to have significant effect on crash injury severity. Two factors, including primary roads and rural areas produce random parameters. The interaction effects reveal interesting combination features. For example, even though rural areas and primary roads increase the likelihood of fatal crash occurrence individually, the interaction effect of the two factors decreases the likelihood of being fatal. The findings form the foundation for developing safety countermeasures targeted at specific crash groups for reducing fatalities in future crashes.

Keywords: Injury severity; Interaction effects; Random Forest based SHAP; Random parameters logit modeling framework.