Global trends of interstitial lung diseases from 1990 to 2019: an age-period-cohort study based on the Global Burden of Disease study 2019, and projections until 2030

Abstract

Background: Interstitial lung diseases (ILDs) are indispensable components of chronic respiratory diseases and global health challenges. We aimed to explore the global long-term changes in the prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of ILDs; investigate the independent effect of age, period, and cohort; and project the disease burden over the next decade.

Methods: Data were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database 2019. The joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC). An age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was employed to measure the independent effect of age, period, and cohort. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to project the global epidemiological trends until 2030.

Results: From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis (ILD) slightly increased from 52.66 per 100,000 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 44.49 to 61.07] to 57.62 per 100,000 (95% UI 49.42 to 65.67), from 1.76 per 100,000 (95% UI 1.41 to 2.22) to 2.17 per 100,000 (95% UI 1.5 to 2.62), and from 41.57 per 100,000 (95% UI 33.93 to 51.92) to 46.45 per 100,000 (95% UI 35.12 to 54.98), whereas the ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR of pneumoconiosis decreased. High social-demographic index (SDI) regions possessed the highest ASPR, whereas low-middle SDI regions had the highest ASMR and ASDR, followed by low-SDI regions in ILD. Middle-SDI regions reported the highest ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR in pneumoconiosis. The age effect showed that the rate ratio (RR) was high in older adults. Period effect indicated that the RR of prevalence increased over time, whereas the RR of mortality and DALYs decreased in men but increased in women. The cohort effect exhibited that the more recent birth cohort had a higher RR than the previous cohort in prevalence. We projected that ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR would stabilize with little variation over the next decade.

Conclusion: The global burden of ILDs remains relatively severe, especially among older adults, in low- and middle-SDI regions. Effective measurements are expected to improve this situation.

Keywords: Global Burden of Disease (GBD); age–period–cohort (APC) analysis; interstitial lung disease; mortality; pneumoconiosis; prevalence; projection.