Objective: Our objective was to establish a prognostic model for patients with de novo metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) who received chemotherapy followed by locoregional radiotherapy (LRRT) to identify candidates for metastasis-directed therapy (MDT).
Methods: De novo metastatic NPC patients who received chemotherapy followed by LRRT were enrolled. Propensity score matching (PSM) method was used to compare overall survival (OS) for patients receiving LRRT alone and MDT plus LRRT. We developed a predictive model to predict survival and estimate the outcome of stratified therapy and identify suitable candidates for MDT.
Results: A total of 107 patients received MDT plus LRRT and 178 received LRRT alone were enrolled. PSM analysis identified 107 patients in each cohort and showed that MDT plus LRRT was associated with a significant survival benefit (HR: 0.640; 95% CI, 0.29-0.956; p = 0.027). Based on five independent prognostic factors, including metastases number, serum lactate dehydrogenase, liver metastasis, C-reactive protein, and tumor response, a prognostic model was established. All patients were stratified according to the prognostic score obtained by the prognostic model. In the low-risk group, MDT plus LRRT group revealed a significant improvement for OS compared with LRRT alone group (5-year OS, 69.9% vs. 57.8%, p = 0.020). However, no significant difference was observed between MDT plus LRRT group and LRRT alone in the high-risk group (p = 0.75).
Conclusion: MDT plus LRRT was associated with improved OS in patients with de novo metastatic NPC, especially low-risk patients identified with a newly developed prognostic model.
Keywords: local consolidative therapy; nasopharyngeal carcinoma; prognostic model; propensity score matching; survival.
© 2023 Wiley Periodicals LLC.