The petrochemical industry is an integral contributor to the global economy and plays a critical role in improving the lives of people worldwide. However, its development has also led to frequent accidents, and the evolution and global impact of these risks have not been adequately assessed. This study is aimed at quantitatively analyzing the current state of petrochemical risk and its impact on industrial development in 58 coastal countries (regions) worldwide by identifying petrochemical risk impact indicators and constructing threshold regression models. We showed that the global petrochemical risk has been unevenly decreasing in recent years. In some countries (regions), the petrochemical risk remains unchanged or is increasing; in particular, coastal provinces of China need to address this issue. Moreover, when industrialization and economic development levels are < 53.6 and 34,918.4 USD/person, respectively, petrochemical accidents negatively affect industrial development; however, above these thresholds, they do not impact industrial development. Coastal areas of China and some developing countries are far below these thresholds. Therefore, the risk from petrochemicals remains a critical factor affecting industrial development in countries with low industrialization levels.
Keywords: Industrialization phase; Petrochemical accidents; Risk evolution; Threshold regression.
© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.