Impact of uncertainty induced by fatality function on future tropical cyclone risk assessment

Rumei Tang; Jidong Wu; Wei Ding; Ya Ru

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166052

Impact of uncertainty induced by fatality function on future tropical cyclone risk assessment

Sci Total Environ. 2023 Dec 1:902:166052. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166052. Epub 2023 Aug 4.

Authors

Rumei Tang¹, Jidong Wu², Wei Ding¹, Ya Ru¹

Affiliations

¹ State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
² State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; School of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, People's Government of Qinghai Province and Beijing Normal University, Xining 810016, China. Electronic address: wujidong@bnu.edu.cn.

PMID: 37543318
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166052

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the deadliest extreme events occurring under a warming climate. Future TC risk assessment depend on TC projection from climate models and impact function relating TC to its possible consequence. Few studies have explored the uncertainty of impact function in future TC risk assessment compared to uncertainty in future TC characteristics. In this study, we investigate the uncertainty in TC fatality risk assessment induced by geographic and TC category-dependence of fatality function. We focus on all provinces in the mainland of China with historically recorded TC-induced fatalities and examine their TC fatality risks by assessing the difference in the annual average fatalities between current and future climate conditions. Synthetic TCs derived from four climate models and fatality functions parameterized from three grouped historical TC disaster datasets are used to observe the uncertainty induced by climate model and fatality function. Results show that the changes in the TC frequency, wind, TC-induced rainfall intensity, and exposure due to climate change in each province are dependent on the climate models. And the changes in the annual average fatality of each province are dependent on both the climate models and fatality functions. Climate models play a dominant role in determining the spatial pattern of future risk, while the fatality functions can alter the direction and magnitude of the risk change for certain provinces. Our results highlight the role of fatality function in detecting future TC risk under climate change, and inspire further TC impact studies that consider the heterogeneity of both climate conditions and geographical locations.

Keywords: China; Fatality; Impact function; Risk assessment; Tropical cyclone.