Rice pudding is a popular artisanal dairy dessert highly consumed in the main rice-producing countries, including Egypt. This study aimed to evaluate and model the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in rice pudding dessert stored at different temperatures (4-25 °C) over its shelf-life. Lab-scale rice pudding samples were prepared following a traditional Egyptian recipe and inoculated with a three-strain cocktail of L. monocytogenes (ca. 3 × 102 cfu/g). Inoculated rice pudding samples (pH = 6.67 ± 0.06 and aw = 0.99 ± 0.002) were stored at different isothermal conditions (4, 8, 12, 18, and 25 °C) and microbiologically analysed for up to 30 days for pathogen quantification by plate count methodology. Global regression analysis was used to fit the Baranyi model coupled with the Ratkowsky model to growth data, relating L. monocytogenes concentrations (N, log cfu/g) with storage temperature (°C) and times (d). Model validation was performed using published independent data. L. monocytogenes growth potential increased by increasing storage temperature. The estimated Ratkowsky model parameters were b = 0.0819 ± 0.0017 log cfu/d·°C and Tmin = -3.28 ± 0.20 °C. The indices RMSE = 0.39 and R2adj = 0.97 indicated a good agreement between the experimental data and the model predictions. The estimated maximum growth rate (μmax) values ranged between 0.355 and 5.363 log cfu/d from 4 to 25 °C. The model was successfully validated using published L. monocytogenes Scott A and California strains growth data in rice pudding samples stored at 5, 12 and 22 °C, as evidenced by the assessed statistical indices. The predictive model developed and validated in this study will aid in decision-making regarding the microbiological safety of rice pudding dessert with respect to L. monocytogenes growth, considering a wide range of storage temperatures.
Keywords: Dairy product; Foodborne pathogens; Mathematical modelling; Milk rice; Predictive microbiology; Ready-to-eat food.
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