Estimated Technological Obsolescence of Computed Tomography Equipment

Abstract

Rationale and objectives: To evaluate a model for predicting technological obsolescence of computed tomography (CT) equipment.

Materials and methods: Baseline data consisted of various models of CT scanners that have been on the market since 1974 and represent a technological leap in CT. In documenting the CT scans, a principal component analysis was performed to reduce the number of variables. A Cox regression model was used to calculate the probability of a technology leap.

Results: The CT parameters were divided into three main components: detection system, image resolution, and device performance. Cox regression odds ratios show that a technology leap can be expected as a function of the variables device power (1.457), detection system (0.818), and image resolution (0.964).

Conclusion: Our results show that the variables that predict the technological leap in CT are device performance, image resolution, and detection system. The results provide a better understanding of the expected technological changes in CT, which will lead to advances in planning investments in this technology, purchasing and installing equipment in hospitals where this type of technology is not yet available, and renewing the technological base already installed.

Keywords: Computed tomography; Discriminant analysis; Logistic regression analysis; Principal components analysis; Technical obsolescence.