Survival outcomes and predicting intracranial metastasis in stage III non-small cell lung cancer treated with definitive chemoradiation: Real-world data from a tertiary cancer center

Abstract

Purpose/objective: Around 30% of patients with non-small cell lung cancers (NSCLC) are diagnosed with stage III disease at presentation, of which about 50% are treated with definitive chemoradiation (CRT). Around 65-80% of patients will eventually develop intracranial metastases (IM), though associated risk factors are not clearly described. We report survival outcomes and risk factors for development of IM in a cohort of patients with stage III NSCLC treated with CRT at a tertiary cancer center.

Materials/methods: We identified 195 patients with stage III NSCLC treated with CRT from January 2010 to May 2021. Multivariable logistic regression was used to generate odds ratios for covariates associated with development of IM. Kaplan-Meier analysis with the Log Rank test was used for unadjusted time-to-event analyses. P-value for statistical significance was set at < 0.05 with a two-sided test.

Results: Out of 195 patients, 108 (55.4%) had stage IIIA disease and 103 (52.8%) had adenocarcinoma histology. The median age and follow-up (in months) was 67 (IQR 60-74) and 21 (IQR 12-43), respectively. The dose of radiation was 60 Gy in 30 fractions for148 patients (75.9%). Of the 77 patients who received treatment since immunotherapy was available and standard at our cancer center, 45 (58.4%) received at least one cycle. During follow-up, 84 patients (43.1%) developed any metastasis, and 33 (16.9%) developed IM (either alone or with extracranial metastasis). 150 patients (76.9%) experienced a treatment delay (interval between diagnosis and treatment > 4 weeks). Factors associated with developing any metastasis included higher overall stage at diagnosis (p = 0.013) and higher prescribed dose (p = 0.022). Factors associated with developing IM included higher ratio of involved over sampled lymph nodes (p = 0.001) and receipt of pre-CRT systemic or radiotherapy for any reason (p = 0.034). On multivariate logistical regression, treatment delay (OR 3.9, p = 0.036) and overall stage at diagnosis (IIIA vs. IIIB/IIIC) (OR 2.8, p = 0.02) predicted development of IM. These findings were sustained on sensitivity analysis using different delay intervals. Median OS was not reached for the overall cohort, and was 43.1 months for patients with IM and 40.3 months in those with extracranial-only metastasis (p = 0.968). In patients with any metastasis, median OS was longer (p = 0.003) for those who experienced a treatment delay (48.4 months) compared to those that did not (12.2 months), likely due to expedited diagnosis and treatment in patients with a higher symptom burden secondary to more advanced disease.

Conclusions: In patients with stage III NSCLC treated with definitive CRT, the risk of IM appears to increase with overall stage at diagnosis and, importantly, may be associated with experiencing a treatment delay (> 4 weeks). Metastatic disease of any kind remains the primary life-limiting prognostic factor in these patients with advanced lung cancer. In patients with metastatic disease, treatment delay was associated with better survival. Patients who experience a treatment delay and those initially diagnosed at a more advanced overall stage may warrant more frequent surveillance for early diagnosis and treatment of IM. Healthcare system stakeholders should strive to mitigate treatment delay in patients with locally NSCLC to reduce the risk of IM. Further research is needed to better understand factors associated with survival, treatment delay, and the development of IM after CRT in the immunotherapy era.

Keywords: Chemoradiation; Intracranial metastasis; Treatment delay.