Athelia rolfsii, causal agent of "southern blight" disease, is a soilborne fungal pathogen with a wide host range of more than 500 species. This study's objectives were to (i) quantify the effects of two environmental factors, temperature and soil moisture, on germination of A. rolfsii inoculum (sclerotia), which is a critical event for the onset of disease epidemics and (ii) predict the timing of sclerotial germination by applying population-based threshold-type hydrothermal time (HTT) models. We conducted in vitro germination experiments with three isolates of A. rolfsii isolated from peanuts, which were tested at five temperatures (T), ranging from 17 to 40°C, four matric potentials (Ψm) between -0.12 and -1.57 MPa, and two soil types (fine sand and loamy fine sand), using a factorial design. When Ψm was maintained between -0.12 and -0.53 MPa, T from 22 to 34°C was found to be conducive to sclerotial germination (>50%). The HTT models were fitted for a range of T (22 to 34°C) and Ψm (-0.12 to -1.57 MPa) that accounted for 84% or more of variation in the timing of sclerotial germination. The estimated base T ranged between 0 and 4.5°C and the estimated base Ψm between -2.96 and -1.52 MPa. The results suggest that the HTT modeling approach is a suitable means of predicting the timing of A. rolfsii sclerotial germination. This HTT methodology can potentially be tested to fine-tune fungicide application timing and in-season A. rolfsii management strategies. [Formula: see text] Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY 4.0 International license.
Keywords: epidemiology; matric potential; moisture release curve; pbt models; probit regression; soilborne pathogen; southern blight; stem rot; threshold model.