A novel explainable online calculator for contrast-induced AKI in diabetics: a multi-centre validation and prospective evaluation study

Abstract

Background: In patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), contrast-induced acute kidney injury (CIAKI) is a frequent complication, especially in diabetics, and is connected with severe mortality and morbidity in the short and long term. Therefore, we aimed to develop a CIAKI predictive model for diabetic patients.

Methods: 3514 patients with diabetes from four hospitals were separated into three cohorts: training, internal validation, and external validation. We developed six machine learning (ML) algorithms models: random forest (RF), gradient-boosted decision trees (GBDT), logistic regression (LR), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator with LR, extreme gradient boosting trees (XGBT), and support vector machine (SVM). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of ML models was compared to the prior score model, and developed a brief CIAKI prediction model for diabetes (BCPMD). We also validated BCPMD model on the prospective cohort of 172 patients from one of the hospitals. To explain the prediction model, the shapley additive explanations (SHAP) approach was used.

Results: In the six ML models, XGBT performed best in the cohort of internal (AUC: 0.816 (95% CI 0.777-0.853)) and external validation (AUC: 0.816 (95% CI 0.770-0.861)), and we determined the top 15 important predictors in XGBT model as BCPMD model variables. The features of BCPMD included acute coronary syndromes (ACS), urine protein level, diuretics, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (%), hemoglobin (g/L), congestive heart failure (CHF), stable Angina, uric acid (umol/L), preoperative diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (mmHg), contrast volumes (mL), albumin (g/L), baseline creatinine (umol/L), vessels of coronary artery disease, glucose (mmol/L) and diabetes history (yrs). Then, we validated BCPMD in the cohort of internal validation (AUC: 0.819 (95% CI 0.783-0.855)), the cohort of external validation (AUC: 0.805 (95% CI 0.755-0.850)) and the cohort of prospective validation (AUC: 0.801 (95% CI 0.688-0.887)). SHAP was constructed to provide personalized interpretation for each patient. Our model also has been developed into an online web risk calculator. MissForest was used to handle the missing values of the calculator.

Conclusion: We developed a novel risk calculator for CIAKI in diabetes based on the ML model, which can help clinicians achieve real-time prediction and explainable clinical decisions.

Keywords: Contrast-induced acute kidney injury; Diabetes mellitus; Machine learning; Predictive models; Web calculator.