Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model

René M van Westen; Henk A Dijkstra; Nadia Bloemendaal

doi:10.1007/s00382-023-06680-3

Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model

Clim Dyn. 2023;61(5-6):2269-2284. doi: 10.1007/s00382-023-06680-3. Epub 2023 Jan 22.

Authors

René M van Westen¹, Henk A Dijkstra¹, Nadia Bloemendaal^{2

3}

Affiliations

¹ Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, The Netherlands.
² Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, Noord-Holland The Netherlands.
³ Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, 61 Rte 9W, Palisades, NY 10964 USA.

Abstract

Climate change induces a myriad of effects which influences the global tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency. Here we explore how North Atlantic and Western Pacific TCs are affected under climate change using a present-day and a future (1% pCO2 scenario) ensemble of high resolution simulations. We find that the number of TCs decreases ( $- 45 %$ ) in the North Atlantic but increases ( $+ 15 %$ ) in the Western Pacific. Part of these opposing variations are linked to differences in the ocean's meridional overturning circulation, which gives rise to a different sea surface temperature response and air-sea fluxes between the two basins. The results show the important role of oceanic climate change on TC response.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-023-06680-3.

Keywords: AMOC weakening; Climate change; High-resolution modelling; Tropical cyclones.