A network analysis and support vector regression approaches for visualising and predicting the COVID-19 outbreak in Malaysia

Siti Nurhidayah Sharin; Mohamad Khairil Radzali; Muhamad Shirwan Abdullah Sani

doi:10.1016/j.health.2022.100080

A network analysis and support vector regression approaches for visualising and predicting the COVID-19 outbreak in Malaysia

Healthc Anal (N Y). 2022 Nov:2:100080. doi: 10.1016/j.health.2022.100080. Epub 2022 Jul 19.

Authors

Siti Nurhidayah Sharin¹, Mohamad Khairil Radzali², Muhamad Shirwan Abdullah Sani^{3

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Affiliations

¹ Halal Products Research Institute, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 UPM Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia.
² Faculty of Biotechnology and Biomolecular Sciences, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 UPM Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia.
³ International Institute for Halal Research and Training, International Islamic University Malaysia, Level 3, KICT Building, 53100 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
⁴ Konsortium Institut Halal IPT Malaysia, Ministry of Higher Education, Block E8, Complex E, Federal Government Administrative Centre, 62604 Putrajaya, Malaysia.
⁵ The Catalytixs Solutions, No. 713, Jalan DPP 1/4, Desa Permai Pedas, 71400 Pedas, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia.

Abstract

This study aims to (1) correlate and visualise the Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic spread via Spearman rank coefficients of network analysis (NA) and (2) predict the cumulative number of COVID-19 confirmed and death cases via support vector regression (SVR) based on COVID-19 dataset in Malaysia between July 2020 to June 2021. The NA indicated increasing connectivity between different states throughout the time frame, revealing the most complex network of COVID-19 transmission in the second quarter of 2021. The SVR model predicted future COVID-19 cases and deaths in Malaysia in the second half of 2021. The study demonstrated that the NA and SVR could provide relatively simple yet valuable artificial intelligence techniques for visualising the degree of connectivity and predicting pandemic risk based on confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths. The Malaysian health authorities used the NA and SVR model results for preventive measures in highly populated states.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence; COVID-19; Coronavirus; Network analysis; Support vector regression.