Artificial Intelligence Can Define and Predict the "Optimal Observed Outcome" After Anterior Shoulder Instability Surgery: An Analysis of 200 Patients With 11-Year Mean Follow-Up

Sara E Till; Yining Lu; Anna K Reinholz; Alexander M Boos; Aaron J Krych; Kelechi R Okoroha; Christopher L Camp

doi:10.1016/j.asmr.2023.100773

Artificial Intelligence Can Define and Predict the "Optimal Observed Outcome" After Anterior Shoulder Instability Surgery: An Analysis of 200 Patients With 11-Year Mean Follow-Up

Arthrosc Sports Med Rehabil. 2023 Jul 22;5(4):100773. doi: 10.1016/j.asmr.2023.100773. eCollection 2023 Aug.

Authors

Sara E Till¹, Yining Lu¹, Anna K Reinholz¹, Alexander M Boos¹, Aaron J Krych¹, Kelechi R Okoroha¹, Christopher L Camp¹

Affiliation

¹ Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, U.S.A.

Abstract

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to use unsupervised machine learning clustering to define the "optimal observed outcome" after surgery for anterior shoulder instability (ASI) and to identify predictors for achieving it.

Methods: Medical records, images, and operative reports were reviewed for patients <40 years old undergoing surgery for ASI. Four unsupervised machine learning clustering algorithms partitioned subjects into "optimal observed outcome" or "suboptimal outcome" based on combinations of actually observed outcomes. Demographic, clinical, and treatment variables were compared between groups using descriptive statistics and Kaplan-Meier survival curves. Variables were assessed for prognostic value through multivariate stepwise logistic regression.

Results: Two hundred patients with a mean follow-up of 11 years were included. Of these, 146 (64%) obtained the "optimal observed outcome," characterized by decreased: postoperative pain (23% vs 52%; P < 0.001), recurrent instability (12% vs 41%; P < 0.001), revision surgery (10% vs 24%; P = 0.015), osteoarthritis (OA) (5% vs 19%; P = 0.005), and restricted motion (161° vs 168°; P = 0.001). Forty-one percent of patients had a "perfect outcome," defined as ideal performance across all outcomes. Time from initial instability to presentation (odds ratio [OR] = 0.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92-0.98; P = 0.006) and habitual/voluntary instability (OR = 0.17; 95% CI, 0.04-0.77; P = 0.020) were negative predictors of achieving the "optimal observed outcome." A predilection toward subluxations rather than dislocations before surgery (OR = 1.30; 95% CI, 1.02-1.65; P = 0.030) was a positive predictor. Type of surgery performed was not a significant predictor.

Conclusion: After surgery for ASI, 64% of patients achieved the "optimal observed outcome" defined as minimal postoperative pain, no recurrent instability or OA, low revision surgery rates, and increased range of motion, of whom only 41% achieved a "perfect outcome." Positive predictors were shorter time to presentation and predilection toward preoperative subluxations over dislocations.

Level of evidence: Retrospective cohort, level IV.