The southern armyworm (Spodoptera eridania), a polyphagous crop pest native to tropical America, has been found in Africa (2016) and India (2019), causing defoliation and damage to the reproductive structures of cassava, soybean, and tomato. The damage caused by this pest to crop systems has raised concerns regarding its potential risks. Therefore, we predicted the potential geographical distribution of S. eridania under climate change conditions using 19 bioclimatic variables based on an optimized MaxEnt model. The results showed that annual precipitation (bio12), mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10), and precipitation of the driest month (bio14) were important bioclimatic variables influencing the potential distribution. The prediction showed that the suitable habitat area was approximately 3426.43 × 104 km2, mainly concentrated in southern North America, South America, western Europe, central Africa, southern Asia, and eastern Oceania. In response to global climate change, suitable habitats for S. eridania will expand and shift to higher latitudes in the future, especially under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Because of the current devastating effects on crop production, countries without S. eridania invasion, such as the European Union, Southeast Asian countries, and Australia, need to strengthen phytosanitary measures at border ports to prevent the introduction of this pest.
Keywords: MaxEnt; climate change; potential geographical distribution; southern armyworm.