Canoeing is the most favorite recreational activity in several Taiwanese rivers. However, river water frequently contains elevated levels of pathogenic Escherichia coli, which has adverse effects on human health. This study adopted a quantitative microbial risk assessment to analyze seasonal risks to canoeists' health in the Dongshan River, Taiwan. First, river E. coli concentrations were statistically analyzed to determine the seasonal distributions. The exposure duration (ED) was determined by field observations. To propagate the parametric uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulation was employed to model the probability distributions of seasonal pathogenic E. coli levels, ingestion rates, and ED for athletes. Finally, the beta-Poisson dose-response model was implemented to determine seasonal health risks for canoeists. The study results indicated that the health risks in infection probability ranged from 0.5 × 10-3 to 8.8 × 10-3 illnesses/person/day for tourists and 1.2 × 10-3 to 7.7 × 10-3 illnesses/person/day for athletes. The health risks in the Lizejian Bridge area for tourists exceeded an acceptable level suggested by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 8 × 10-3 illnesses/person/day, in spring for an ED of 2 h/day, and the health risks for tourists and athletes approached this level in spring and winter for an ED exceeding or equaling 1.5 h/day. According to sensitivity analysis, the geometric standard deviation of river E. coli levels was the most sensitive parameter affecting seasonal risks to canoeists' health. To protect canoeists' health, effluent sewer systems, best management practices, and total maximum daily loads should be promptly implemented in this watershed.
Keywords: Escherichia coli; canoeing; quantitative microbial risk assessment; season; uncertainty.
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