Purpose: To determine prognostic and predictive clinical outcomes in metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC) and metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) on the basis of a combination of plasma-derived genomic alterations and lipid features in a longitudinal cohort of patients with advanced prostate cancer.
Methods: A multifeature classifier was constructed to predict clinical outcomes using plasma-based genomic alterations detected in 120 genes and 772 lipidomic species as informative features in a cohort of 71 patients with mHSPC and 144 patients with mCRPC. Outcomes of interest were collected over 11 years of follow-up. These included in mHSPC state early failure of androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) and exceptional responders to ADT; early death (poor prognosis) and long-term survivors in mCRPC state. The approach was to build binary classification models that identified discriminative candidates with optimal weights to predict outcomes. To achieve this, we built multi-omic feature-based classifiers using traditional machine learning (ML) methods, including logistic regression with sparse regularization, multi-kernel Gaussian process regression, and support vector machines.
Results: The levels of specific ceramides (d18:1/14:0 and d18:1/17:0), and the presence of CHEK2 mutations, AR amplification, and RB1 deletion were identified as the most crucial factors associated with clinical outcomes. Using ML models, the optimal multi-omics feature combination determined resulted in AUC scores of 0.751 for predicting mHSPC survival and 0.638 for predicting ADT failure; and in mCRPC state, 0.687 for prognostication and 0.727 for exceptional survival. The models were observed to be superior than using a limited candidate number of features for developing multi-omic prognostic and predictive signatures.
Conclusion: Using a ML approach that incorporates multiple omic features improves the prediction accuracy for metastatic prostate cancer outcomes significantly. Validation of these models will be needed in independent data sets in future.