Cancer has been a leading cause of death for decades. This dismal statistic has increased efforts to prevent the disease or to detect it early, when treatment is less invasive, relatively inexpensive and more likely to cure. But precisely how tissues are transformed continues to provoke controversy and debate, hindering cancer prevention and early intervention strategies. Various theories of cancer origins have emerged, including the suggestion that it is 'bad luck': the inevitable consequence of random mutations in proliferating stem cells. In this Review, we discuss the principal theories of cancer origins and the relative importance of the factors that underpin them. The body of available evidence suggests that developing and ageing tissues 'walk a tightrope', retaining adequate levels of cell plasticity to generate and maintain tissues while avoiding overstepping into transformation. Rather than viewing cancer as 'bad luck', understanding the complex choreography of cell intrinsic and extrinsic factors that characterize transformation holds promise to discover effective new ways to prevent, detect and stop cancer before it becomes incurable.
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