The prognosis of patients with postoperative hyperglycemia after Stanford type A aortic dissection surgery and construction of prediction model for postoperative hyperglycemia

Abstract

Objective: The mortality of type A aortic dissection (TAAD) is extremely high. The effect of postoperative hyperglycemia (PHG) on the prognosis of TAAD surgery is unclear. This study aims to investigate the prognosis of patients with PHG after TAAD surgery and construct prediction model for PHG.

Methods: Patients underwent TAAD surgery from January 2016 to December 2020 in Xiangya Hospital were collected. A total of 203 patients were included and patients were divided into non PHG group and PHG group. The occurrence of postoperative delirium, cardiac complications, spinal cord complication, cerebral complications, acute kidney injury (AKI), hepatic dysfunction, hypoxemia, and in-hospital mortality were compared between two groups. Data from MIMIC-IV database were further applied to validate the relationship between PHG and clinical outcomes. The prediction model for PHG was then constructed using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) analysis. The predictive value of selected features was further validated using patient data from MIMIC-IV database. Finally, the 28-days survival rate of patient with PHG was analyzed using data from MIMIC-IV database.

Results: There were 86 patients developed PHG. The incidences of postoperative AKI, hepatic dysfunction, and in-hospital mortality were significant higher in PHG group. The ventilation time after surgery was significant longer in PHG group. Data from MIMIC-IV database validated these results. Neutrophil, platelet, lactic acid, weight, and lymphocyte were selected as features for prediction model. The values of AUC in training and testing set were 0.8697 and 0.8286 respectively. Then, five features were applied to construct another prediction model using data from MIMIC-IV database and the value of AUC in the new model was 0.8185. Finally, 28-days survival rate of patients with PHG was significantly lower and PHG was an independent risk factor for 28-days mortality after TAAD surgery.

Conclusion: PHG was significantly associated with the occurrence of AKI, hepatic dysfunction, increased ventilation time, and in-hospital mortality after TAAD surgery. The feature combination of neutrophil, platelet, lactic acid, weight, and lymphocyte could effectively predict PHG. The 28-days survival rate of patients with PHG was significantly lower. Moreover, PHG was an independent risk factor for 28-days mortality after TAAD surgery.

Keywords: acute kidney injury; in-hospital mortality; postoperative hyperglycemia; prediction model; risk factor; type A aortic dissection.