Decoupling analysis between economic growth and aluminum cycle: From the perspective of aluminum use and carbon emissions

Abstract

Increasing aluminum demand under the clean energy and low-carbon transformation background increases the fuzziness of relationships between economic growth and aluminum use or aluminum related carbon emissions. To figure this out, this paper established an aluminum use and carbon emissions integrated decoupling model within the framework of anthropogenic aluminum cycle. A material flow analysis (MFA) during 2000-2020 for China's aluminum cycle was firstly conducted to quantify both aluminum flow and carbon emissions in each aluminum life-cycle process. Then, this paper evaluated and decomposed the decoupling index of aluminum use-economy and carbon emission-economy via the LMDI decomposition model. Results show that: (1) secondary aluminum has not become effective supplement for primary aluminum in China; (2) the expansive negative decoupling state was the most prevalent state. The decoupling effects of carbon emission were better than that of aluminum use; (3) technology improvement was an important impactor to decoupling process but didn't offset the growth in aluminum consumption or carbon emissions at most of the time. The government and industry organizers should implement active countermeasures to stimulate aluminum companies developing technology to improve aluminum use efficiency and reduce carbon emissions.

Keywords: Aluminum life cycle; Decoupling analysis; LMDI; MFA.