A dynamic method to predict driving risk on sharp curves using multi-source data

Abstract

Traffic accidents are likely to occur on sharp curves under poor driving conditions, and the severity level of such accidents is high. Therefore, predicting the risk associated with driving on curved roadways in real time can effectively improve driving safety. This paper aims to develop a dynamic real-time method that fuses multiple data sources to predict risk when driving on sharp curves in the context of the connected vehicle environment. Six curves with three small radii (60 m, 100 m, 150 m) and two driving directions (left and right) were designed for a driving simulation experiment. Driver maneuvering data, vehicle kinematic data, and physiological data of 55 drivers were collected for this study. The data were combined and spatially and dynamically segmented. The mean value of the critical lateral acceleration of the vehicle was set as the risk assessment index. K-means clustering was used to classify the driving risk into three levels: low, medium, and high. Then, the risk level was predicted using the maneuvering data, vehicle kinematic data, and physiological data as well as road alignment characteristics as input features for the proposed model that employs the long short-term memory (LSTM) network algorithm. Models with different combinations of observation window (lookback) and interval window (delay) were compared to derive the best window combination. The algorithms selected for comparison against the LSTM algorithm are random forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM. The results show that the proposed LSTM-based method can effectively predict dangerous driving behavior on sharp curves. The optimal window combination derived using the LSTM algorithm is lookback = 20 m and delay = 20 m. The prediction performance of the proposed model is significantly better than that of the other three compared algorithms, with F1-scores of 84.8% and 86.0% for the medium and high risk categories, respectively. In addition, the proposed LSTM-based model that fuses multiple data sources is proven to outperform the model that uses only vehicle kinematics data. The dynamic prediction method proposed in this paper can contribute to the development of a real-time prediction and warning system for driving risks at vehicle terminals in the intelligent connected vehicle environment.

Keywords: Clustering algorithm; Driving risk; Dynamic prediction; Long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm; Sharp curve.